I’m in Hollywood Chapter 591: It should n’t be mine

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Omaha, the capital of Nebraska, City Center, in a typical middle-class house on Farnham Street, Warren Buffett hangs up a phone from New York and stands at the studio window on the second floor, with a touch of anxiety between the brows Looking out the window.

Today is Saturday. Although I did n’t go to work at Hathaway Inc., Warren Buffett is still working.

On the roadside outside the window, a conspicuous Cadillac stopped, and a family of four dressed in decent cars got out of the car, pointing at the Buffett house, and then taking photos of each other with excitement.

Buffett used to see this kind of situation in the past, and he always felt a little proud in his heart. He also used a joke to tell his friends that he was probably one of the few in the United States who was still alive and someone was in his house. Legendary people who took pictures before taking pictures.

But today, Buffett seeing this situation has no complacent emotion. Thinking of what happened in recent days, Buffett frowned again.

In January, Firefly Pictures suddenly and abnormally announced the start of the annual financial report, and Buffett anticipated the intention of Firefly Pictures.

According to their own situation, the time for annual financial statistics of the company varies, some at the end of the year, some after the tax season, and some will be placed in the autumn after the peak season. ABC usually only completes the financial information of the fiscal year after the completion of the spring program, but in order to fight back, ABC deliberately announced its performance information in 1993 in advance.

It ’s just that although the media of the ABC camp has done their best to render ABC up to a market share of up to%, and has repeatedly emphasized the uncertainty of Film Studio profits, the huge profits of Firefly 1.19 billion USD are full of luck, but ordinary people even include Most shareholders only saw the "superficial" fact that Firefly's annual profit is more than twice that of ABC. In order to attract attention, many media have also boosted the trend with this trend and touted Firefly Pictures's status as higher and higher.

Since Firefly Pictures revealed the news to enter the TV industry, Buffett has not stopped the research on Firefly Pictures. He found that Eric made his debut with "Home Alone" in the first few years. All comedy or horror films that rely on some swords to take off the edge have made huge profits from the Box Office market in a short time. Although these Box Office miracle films have proven that young man ’s excellent vision in film production, these are small and big. It is simply impossible for a low-cost movie to achieve success all the time, especially after other Film Studio increased investment in similar movies. If Firefly Pictures does not succumb to the big Film Studio, then the competitive advantage will become smaller and smaller. Perhaps, like many of the Solitary Film Studio, which has just flashed like a meteor, this miracle-produced Film Studio may also quickly fall.

But things are not going this way.

Since three years ago, Firefly Pictures has abandoned this kind of small and big production idea. Relying on Pixar animation studio and digital special effects company, it has opened two very stable profit paths for 3D animation movies and special effects movies. The success of major production films such as "Terminator 2: Judgement Day", "Twister", "Toy Story" and so on Firefly Pictures's foundation in Hollywood, and eventually prompted Firefly Pictures to annex the old Film Studio Disney, became one of the seven Film Studio of Hollywood.

Buffett very much advocates a theory called 'bridge toll station'. Simply put, if you have a 'bridge channel' from b to b, then you can use this 'bridge' to obtain stable and rich profits . Buffett's investment decisions on "The Washington Post", The Coca-Cola Company and ABC TV Network are all influenced to some extent by this "bridge toll station" theory.

In the course of studying Firefly Pictures data, Buffett found that Pixar animation studio and digital field special effects company under Firefly Pictures have this kind of bridge toll station effect. Before the release of "Toy Story" and "Terminator 2: Judgement Day", Eric Williams invested tens of millions of USD in these two companies. This is basically impossible for Hollywood and Film Studio, where most investment decisions have to be constrained by Board of Directors and shareholders.

The huge investment of Eric Williams in advance of other companies for several years has created the two unique 'toll bridges' of Firefly Pictures. In the past three years, Firefly Pictures has been enjoying this monopoly's monopoly fee The huge dividend brought by the bridge '.

From the pursuit of CG Special Effects movies and 3D animation in the North America and global markets, as long as Firefly Pictures can maintain the technical advantages of the digital field and Pixar animation studio, in the future for many years, the fee bridge effect of these two subsidiaries in the hands of Firefly Will not fail.

In contrast to ABC, although ABC TV Network obtained a high profit of 520 million USD last year, this TV Network is still in crisis. Even if it was ten years ago, the United States TV industry was still firmly controlled by ABC, NBC and CBS three Major TV Networks. At that time, three Major TV Networks was in a situation where the business was not too ideal. Can easily get 3% market share. But since the rapid rise of national cable channels in the 1980s, the days of three Major TV Networks have been worse than the other. In the late 1980s, Murdoch from Australia created Fox public TV Network and successfully based on North America. Shake three Major TV Networks's market position again.

In this case, Buffett realized that the "toll bridge" effect of ABC TV Network is getting lower and lower. Therefore, after Firefly Pictures threw an olive branch to ABC, Buffett quickly moved on to this business.

It's just that Firefly Pictures is far more difficult than he thought.

Buffett never felt that he was a very greedy person, so he met for the first time. He gave a quotation that he thought was very kind, but the young man refused it if he did n’t want it, and the proposed cash acquisition plan made Buffett realize that Eric did n’t care much about the amount of Firefly spent, he just wanted As little as possible to pay Firefly Pictures's shares, and the subsequent formal negotiations also proved this.

Since feeling that the bridge toll station effect of ABC TV Network is failing, Buffett has had the idea of ​​cashing out the sale of ABC shares in the hands of Berkshire Hathaway. Before Firefly Pictures proposed the acquisition, he successively sold some shares. But in the face of Firefly Pictures's persistence in the negotiations, Buffett, who also has a stubborn personality, did not make too many concessions, and the private contact ended in failure.

But Buffett is a very sensible person, since he is optimistic about this business. Buffett will not give up easily, he also knows that Firefly will never change the acquisition target so easily. After Firefly Pictures publicly released the acquisition information, Buffett also facilitated the acquisition negotiations between the management of both parties.

Then, especially in the last week. Buffett found that this matter has started to run out of control.

The last time this sense of runaway occurred was when Salomon Brothers Inc. encountered a crisis four years ago, and then the king of Wall Street in the 1980s declined in just a few years. Because Buffett took over the company during the investigation of Salomon Brothers, many people blamed Solomon for his decline.

Thinking about how to deal with the latest things, Buffett saw a black car driving into the house, and his investment partner, Charlie Munger, who was also Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Vice Chairman, got out of the car.

Charlie Munger looked up and saw the figure in front of the window. Waving at Buffett.

When I came to the Buffett studio, Charlie Munger and Buffett embraced and said, "The recent situation looks a bit bad. I think I should come here in person."

Buffett smiled lightly, and ordered Astrid Menks, who was actually his cohabiting girlfriend, to prepare some cola for the two, and handed over some information on the table many times to Charlie Munger: "Let ’s see it first."

Charlie Munger has its own business. Although it is also a shareholder of Berkshire Hathaway, he is not as concerned about the progress of the ABC acquisition as Buffett.

Until four days ago, there was a sudden news in the media that the acquisition negotiations between Firefly and ABC tended to break down, and 《Los Angeles Times》 also confirmed that the negotiating parties had suspended contact. Charlie Munger had to pay attention.

In the following few working days, due to the stimulus of this bad news, the stock price of ABC, which had risen to a high of 52USD, quickly fell back. It fell by 9.6% in just three days, and the stock price returned to the level of the beginning of the year. At the same time, because of a series of rumors that have not even been confirmed, the stock prices of the other three public TV Network NBC, CBS and Fox have all increased by more than 5%.

Quickly browse the information in hand, Charlie Munger raised his head and said: "From the current situation, if we do not agree to this transaction. Other shareholders may initiate an extraordinary general meeting to vote?"

Buffett found a letter from the desk and handed it to Charlie Munger. He said with a heavy tone: "It is not possible. This is a text message from David West of State Street Universal Fund Chairman. They already plan to do so."

Charlie Munger glanced at the stationery. Some scolded angrily: "Don't they know which side they are on, this group of idiots?"

Buffett did n’t mind the friend ’s gaffe, and sighed slightly, saying: “If United States only has ABC as a public TV Network, they will certainly stand firmly with us. But unfortunately, Firefly Pictures is not only ABC This one. If it ’s not that ABC ’s operation is far better than the other two, maybe they have already let go at this time, which is why the David West people are so urgent, everyone can see that the business of the public TV Network is shrinking, so They are unwilling to give up this opportunity of high cash out, not to mention the fact that they can also obtain a part of Firefly Pictures's shares, and the company that can achieve 1USD annual profits will not exceed five in the entire Federation. "

Charlie Munger felt a bit lonely in the tone of Buffett and smiled and said: "But we are not bad at all, are we?"

The lost emotions caused by the miraculous rise of the latecomers only stayed in Buffett ’s mind for a few seconds. After hearing the words of Charlie Munger, Buffett quickly regained the usual confident smile, saying: “Of course, we Not bad at all. "

"Okay, man," Charlie Munger reached out and patted Buffett on the shoulder: "Let ’s discuss what to do about it now, do you have any good ideas?"

"There used to be one," Buffett skillfully turned a piece of paper from the large pile of materials on the desk and handed it to Charlie Munger.

Charlie Munger glanced down and found that it was a movie release schedule cut from newspaper, and several of them were also marked with an asterisk.

"" Saving Private Ryan "," The Lion King "," True Lies "," Charlie Munger looked at the names of these movies and looked up and asked: "These three movies are the main films of Firefly Pictures summer, are there any problems?"

Buffett nodded and said: "Of course." Saving Private Ryan "is a war movie," The Lion King "is a traditional Hand-Drawn Animation, and" True Lies "is a very ordinary big scene action movie, and the cost is very high. Reached 100 million USD."

Charlie Munger is not very good for movies, he is well aware of the same with Buffett, but Buffett has done much more work than him during this time, so he ca n’t stop nodding and listening patiently .

Buffett paused briefly. After giving my friends time to think, I continued: "I called Warner's Robert Daley to consult about this. Hollywood hasn't had a war film like" Saving Private Ryan "for many years, because the risk of failure is very high, and Firefly's distribution strategy for "The Lion King" is also very different from the traditional distribution method. This kind of 2D Hand-Drawn Animation will generally be screened at the end of the year. Although there are no competitors of the same type in the summer file, the very aggressive competition will greatly shorten the file period. The screening time of the 2D animation. The last is "True Lies". Last summer, there were two action movies of the same type that ended in failure. One of the protagonists is still the protagonist of "True Lies" Schwarzenegger. Now Hollywood has made such big productions The action movie project is very cautious. "

Charlie Munger remembered the information I just saw, saying: "You mean, Firefly Pictures completely gave up the CG Special Effects movies and 3D cartoons that they were better at in previous years. This year is likely to follow in these three movies? "

Buffett nodded: “So, I think that if the negotiation can be dragged to the summer stage, as long as the Firefly Pictures summer stage movie fails, then it will break the miracle of Firefly Pictures movie investment without disadvantage. We can get back the initiative again. "

Charlie Munger nodded in agreement, but he quickly shouted: "However, the situation is now. Firefly will definitely not give ABC so much time, right?"

Buffett smiled a little bitterly and said: "Yes, and. From the recent signs of frequent Firefly Pictures shots, I feel that if the deal is not completed this month, they may really want to let go."

"You started selling ABC stock at the beginning of last year, I think you definitely want to close this deal, right?"

Face friends who have been in contact for many years. Buffett did not hide, nodded honestly, said: "Yes."

Charlie Munger said: "What do you think is the upper limit of the Eric Williams offer price, I think for you, this data should not be difficult to guess?"

Buffett is best at data analysis and nodded: "The focus of the dispute is on the share swap share. I think he may only sell up to 25% of the shares now," Buffett was annoyed after saying this. : "If these guys of David West can press a little bit more, the 3% trading plan I put forward this Monday may be able to work together, at most two percentage points back."

"Otherwise," Charlie Munger knocked on the desktop and suggested: "You contact Tom, how about the three of us going to Los Angeles, maybe you can also join in the excitement of Oscar."

Buffett gently shook his head and said: "I don't think this will make that young man make any concessions, now he has taken advantage."

"I think the three of us old guys came forward in person. As long as the young man is smart enough, he will definitely make some concessions."

Buffett knows what his friends meant. He and Charlie Munger and Tom Murphy have risen in the federal business community for decades. There are countless tangible and intangible resources in his hands. As long as they are willing to exchange them, Absolutely can get real benefits.

"But these benefits will not fall on us in vain, and they will be harvested ahead of time. I still have to pay in the future. I do n’t think Eric Williams will make us cheap."

Although Charlie Munger sees Buffett saying so, he has agreed in his tone. He picked up the phone on the Buffett table to prepare people to arrange a private jet. He also said: "I am more and more interested in that young man, huh, And the cliff villa he built in Malibu. Last time I chatted with John. Bonn, he said that the world would never find such a great location to build a private manor house. If Eric Williams is willing to take action, He is willing to buy Cliff Peak Manor from 200 million USD. "

Although there is no special pursuit for material life, Buffett does not hide his true views. He nods and said: "That villa is really good, although the actual value is certainly not as much as 200 million USD, but Eric Williams will definitely not be for 200 million USD. He sells it, but he is not short of money. "

Charlie Munger dialed the phone, simply said a few words, and then put down the microphone and said: "Haha, I almost forgot about this. Your richest man's title was just snatched away by him just a year ago, right? Lost? "

Buffett actually enjoys the limelight. Of course I feel a bit lost, but I still commented very professionally: "It should n’t have been mine. He concealed the data last year. I can still see this. "(To be continued.)