I’m in Hollywood Chapter 626: We continue

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After becoming a Firefly Pictures shareholder, whether it is Warren Buffett or David West, they have started to pay attention to the Hollywood film market.

After the Eric presentation, the three of them realized that the Hollywood this year, whether it was the successful "The Mummy", "Saving Private Ryan" and other films, or the failed "Beverly Hills Cop 3" or "JAG", the hairstyle strategy adopted is Eric. Said the full distribution, so they also endorsed the conclusion of the first article.

The three of them did n’t lose their mind to ask why Eric wanted to talk about this, but quietly followed the action of Eric and opened the next page of information.

"First of all, I want to make a statement," Eric opened another page and said, "My plan is to close Disney's Hand-Drawn Animation Department, but I have never said that I want to stop Disney's animation production, I just want Disney's animation studio from The traditional Hand-Drawn Animation turned to more advanced digital animation production. "

Of course, the Buffett three knew this and smiled and nodded their heads. They also knew why Eric said so. Now the rumors of Eric have been exaggerated to the point that Eric wants to replace the Disney brand with Firefly.

Eric smiled and said: "Then the next material is a comparison of the four animated films released between 1991 and 1994 in Disney," Beauty and the Beast "," Aladdin "," Toy Story "and" A Bug's Life ". The four films represent the typical 2D Animation and 3D Animation. Overall, we can see that the total Box Office of "Beauty and the Beast" and "Aladdin" is slightly more than the two 3D Animation, but from the Box Office curve analysis, it is not difficult to find that "Beauty and the Beast "And" Aladdin "are very standard long-term projection modes. The eight weeks of the two films Box Office accounted for only 57% and 53% of the total Box Office, while the corresponding numbers of" Toy Story "and" A Bug's Life "reached 89% and 88. %, This is a typical full-release film. At the same time, we can see that the number of screens of "Toy Story" and "A Bug's Life" quickly dropped to less than 1,000 at 13 and 12 weeks, respectively. Other movies. While "Beauty and the Beast" and "Aladdin" have maintained 1000 screens for 25 weeks and 21 weeks respectively, I believe that in the next few years, when full-scale releases completely occupy the mainstream of the market, the Get more Box Office. It is absolutely impossible for this kind of long-term **** of a large number of screens to continue to appear. "

Tom Murphy asked: "Eric, this does not seem to be enough to prove the fate of 2D Animation is about to be eliminated, we can let 2D Animation also use the full distribution model," The Lion King "seems to be like this."

David West and Warren Buffett nodded without traces.

Eric seemed to expect that they would ask this question, and said with a smile: "So. Let's continue to the next document."

Buffett glanced at each other and turned to the next page again.

"The next thing I want to explain is why 2D Animation cannot adopt the full distribution model," Eric glanced at Tom Murphy, and said: "We have just reached that" The Lion King "is just a tacit understanding of an event movie, from" The Little Mermaid " , 《Who Framed Roger Rabbit》, "Beauty and the Beast" and "Aladdin" animation movies Box Office trends, we have not found the 2D Animation market expansion phenomenon, so I hope you can temporarily ignore "The Lion King", is it okay? "

Tom Murphy nodded awkwardly, Warren Buffett and David West have looked at the information in their hands.

Eric went on to say: “Everyone ’s eyes are a single-week Box Office comparison table of four animated movies. We can find that the single-week Box Office fluctuations of the two 2D movies are very unstable, even after eight weeks, they will also appear In a state of sudden high and low, sometimes Box Office has fallen to more than 5 million USD, but suddenly it rose to more than 8 million next week, and the other two films have a stable Box Office curve similar to that of the city people. Why does this happen? The answer is on the next page. "

After four people turned pages at the same time, Eric looked up at the three people. Laughed: "Is the amazing bar of the first column scale drawing attracting your attention?"

After such a reminder from Eric, even if they didn't notice, the Buffett three also saw the abrupt strip of the first columnar scale chart.

"The histogram in front of us lists the proportions of the audiences of different ages in 2D Animation movies and 3D Animation movies, in order to display the results more intuitively. I divided the ages of the audiences (0-13 years old), (14-18 years old), (19-28 years old) and (& gt; 28 years old) these four intervals, these data are from Disney's previous market research reports, and the accuracy is unquestionable. "

Eric explained briefly, saying: "We can clearly see that in the 2D Animation movies, the proportion of younger audiences aged 0-13 years old accounted for an astonishing 41% of the total audience. The same data for 3D Animation movies, This ratio is only 26%. However, this does not mean that the number of children who like 3D Animation has decreased, but because the number of viewers over the age of 13 has increased significantly. In the histogram, the two types of movies are watched at 14-18 years old. The population proportion figures form a strong contrast with the 0-13 range, respectively 17% and 29%, the age range of 19-28 years old, this contrast is also obvious, respectively 7% and 16%, I believe that in this age range Of the 7% of the 2D Animation crowd, there must be a large part of them to take their children with them. I believe that viewers over the age of 28 who watch 2D Animation movies are basically to meet their children ’s viewing needs. "

A brief summary of the data, Eric will no longer look at the file, and look up: "Disney has always had the practice of re-released the previous 2DHand-Drawn Animation movie every seven years, because Disney itself will also be a 7-13 year old child audience. As the main movie watching group, and every seven years, a new group of children's audience appears. Through these detailed statistics, we can easily find out why the Box Office curve of the 2D Animation movie is very unstable and why it can only take the long-term projection mode. "

"Because the audience of the 2D Animation movie is very young, this part of the children ’s audience is not capable of autonomous behavior, and they must be led by parents to watch the movie. Even during the summer vacation, adults also need to work, they often only Only through weekends or some special holidays can children be taken to watch 2D Animation films. In order to cooperate with parents' very uncertain schedule, Film Studio must use the long-term screening mode that will be eliminated to fully tap the potential of 2D Animation's Box Office. "

“The 3D Animation movie is different. This new animated movie mode is not only loved by younger audiences, but also recognized by teenagers and some adult audiences who have formed a separate purchasing power. In the statistics of the proportion of movie watchers just now, The proportion of children in 3D Animation movies is only 26%, while the total audience of 14-28-year-old movie consumer groups totals 45%. This proportion is almost the same as that of Live-Action Film audience, which is why 3D Animation movies can be fully distributed like Live-Action Film. Marketing strategy. "

After Eric finished speaking, all three of Buffett fell into short contemplation. Eric did not disturb the three. He raised his hands and looked at his watch. Unconsciously, fifteen minutes was about to pass. He didn't want the restaurant waiter to rush in, so he turned his head to Kelly Haynes and whispered a few words.

Although Kelly Haynes was a bit distracted by Eric ’s speech, he still stood up and walked out. When she approached the door, Kelly Haynes realized that Eric had almost touched her ear, maybe she could kiss her cheek a little further forward, but she did n’t feel the slightest resistance, but instead felt The earlobe brushed by the breath of Eric was inexplicably hot.

I heard a slight closing sound behind me. Eric looked at the three people who had come back and smiled, "So, shall we continue?"

The three of Buffett nodded, and although they could still pick up a lot of questions in their hearts, looking at more than half of the information left in their hands, the three subconsciously felt that the young man must have considered that they might Ask any question.

Tom Murphy and David West were almost persuaded by Eric at this time, and Buffett looked at Eric with strong approval and eagerness. He is 65 years old this year, although he is still energetic. But the issue of death has begun to haunt him and other partners of the company. Many partners of Berkshire Hathaway have asked the next heir of his company more than once, and several children of Buffett obviously do not have the ability to take up this position.

Although Buffett believes that he can still work for at least ten years, he once joked that even after his death, he will show his spirit to manage Berkshire Hathaway. But anyone, including himself, is well aware that once he dies, Berkshire Hathaway will surely usher in an unknowable upheaval.

Buffett has tried to train an heir more than once, but several attempts have ended in failure. And now this young man who can still calmly see the development trend of an industry in such a hot situation of "The Lion King" Box Office, and choose a long-term plan without coveting temporary interests. The keen insight and firm execution have always been the prerequisites that his ideal heir should have.

Just ...

Buffett soon gave birth to a strong regret. Eric ’s current wealth and status also represent that he is unlikely to be the next leader of Berkshire Hathaway, because Buffett hopes that his heirs can focus on the operation of Berkshire Hathaway. Do not distract others, but the industry in the hands of Eric is already much larger than Berkshire Hathaway. He gave Berkshire Hathaway to him, and Eric can hardly devote too much energy to manage this equally huge company.

Although I regret to confirm this, Buffett still feels a little unwilling.

Eric did n’t know what Buffett thought about it. Seeing the three had no objections, they said: "So, after talking about the external factors that affect 2D Animation, the next is the internal reasons. I think everyone must be aware of the cost difference between the two movies. Yes, the two 2D Animation movies listed here cost less than 30 million, while the costs of "Toy Story" and "A Bug's Life" are 50 million USD and 80 million USD, respectively. "

Speaking of this, Eric paused and said: "First of all, I want to explain a question, whether it is 2D or 3D Animation, the main cost is the cost of human resources, and each frame of the two animated movies is artificial. The drawing is just different. Because Hand-Drawn Animation has been developed for more than half a century, the entire industry is very mature and the number of animators is very large. So even if it is the best Hand-Drawn Animation teachers in the world of Disney animation studios, The annual salary exceeds 100,000 USD is also very few. But the digital animator is a newly emerging occupation, the talent is very scarce. Therefore, after the success of "Toy Story", in order to prevent the Pixar skilled digital animator from being poached by other Film Studio, Firefly had to increase Their salary level. Similarly, after "The Lion King", if Disney is to continue to maintain Hand-Drawn Animation Department, the animators who originally had an average annual salary of 50,000 USD may have a monthly salary of more than 10,000 USD in the future, that is, the production of 2D Animation The cost will double ... "

After hearing this, Tom Murphy suddenly smiled and interrupted Eric, saying: "Eric, you just said," The Lion King "is an event movie?"

"Of course, but I think so, does not mean that the entire Hollywood thinks so, do n’t they all think that the golden age of 2D Animation is coming?" Eric knows that Tom Murphy is just kidding, explaining, and then continued: " The production cost of "The Lion King" has already exceeded 45 million USD, if doubled, the cost of 2DHand-Drawn Animation in the future may exceed 100 million USD. "

Eric clearly remembers that in 1999, when he accidentally saw the latest 2DHand-Drawn Animation "Tarzan of the Apes" of Disney publicity company through the Internet in 1999, he played the banner of the most expensive animated film in history, and the production cost of the publicized "Tarzan of the Apes" It has reached 150 million USD, and then the North America Box Office of this movie is only 170 million. According to the accumulated experience of Eric now, the cost plus huge distribution fees, even if this live-action animation calculates the subsequent peripheral profits, the possibility of Disney loss It is also very large.

"Then, if the cinema operators are no longer willing to waste screen resources in the next few years to continue to implement long-term distribution of 2D Animation movies, the cost of up to 100 million USD and the average announcement investment that may rise to 50 million USD, we can almost be sure unless it continues Event movies like "The Lion King", otherwise it will be difficult for the company to recover the cost of the movie through Box Office. Then, you will definitely say that the peripheral income of animation movies has always been very rich, then, let's continue to look at the next statistics ... … "

The three of Buffett were inexplicably poked at the last sentence of Eric, and they all continued to turn the page with a smile, and at the same time, Kelly Haynes, who had just left, silently returned to Eric. (To be continued.)