Return To 1977 Chapter 212: Outbreak opportunities
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To be honest, in Hong Yanwu's view, Vice President Zhou of the aquatic products company had a good intention.
Although there is some suspicion that someone is trying to gain fame, his original intention is to bring down the price of sea cucumbers so that the people can get some benefits.
But the sad thing is that he is a very self-righteous person who does not understand business. The order issued is purely a typical "pat on the head" policy, taken for granted and completely divorced from the actual situation.
In fact, there is no basis for implementing price reductions for sea cucumbers in Bincheng. This price reduction order may not only make it difficult to realize Vice President Zhou’s original intention, but may also end up being counterproductive and lead to an abnormal surge in sea cucumber prices.
Why do you say that?
Hong Yanwu here popularizes some of the market economics viewpoints known today to the "Hai Bangzi". That is, whether a product is truly valuable or not is not determined by artificial pricing at all, but by the relationship between supply and demand.
To put it bluntly, "things are rare and valuable", and this is the same for any commodity.
There is a saying that goes, "If you want to know about maritime affairs, you must ask fishermen."
In fact, through investigations in the warehouse in the past few days, Hong Yanwu also found out a set of real and already happened data, that is, Bincheng's annual sea cucumber production in recent years.
He consulted with several experienced old warehouse managers and learned that before the "movement" in Bincheng, the highest fishery output was only about 10,000 tons of fresh sea cucumbers every year. When converted into light dried sea cucumbers, that is Three to four hundred tons.
After the "Movement", due to the abandonment of production in all walks of life, sea cucumber production also decreased year by year, quickly falling to about 2,000 tons per year. In recent years, only less than 100 tons of light dried ginseng can be produced.
So this year, even if the production is doubled according to the aquatic products company's forecast, it will be nothing more than 200 tons of light dried ginseng.
As for the Bincheng "Hai Bangzi", although they are large in number, probably in the thousands, their levels are uneven, and their harvesting methods are also quite backward. Even if we calculate the average amount of 50 kilograms of light dried ginseng per person for 4,000 people, it is as high as the sky, that is, the annual catch of 100 tons of light dried ginseng.
In this way, the largest total amount of sea cucumbers in Bincheng this year can be estimated accurately. Bincheng's official and private companies combined cannot exceed 300 tons of light-dried sea cucumbers.
To be honest, the supply of sea cucumbers in Bincheng has never been sufficient. Based on the local urban population, when the fishery situation is at its best, the production is enough to give each person two taels of dried sea cucumbers.
At the same time, light-dried sea cucumbers are one of the few seafood products that can be preserved for a long time. Every year, Bincheng supplies large quantities of them to well-known restaurants in major cities across the country.
Besides, how many local seafood restaurants are there in Bincheng? How many migrants come to Bincheng for business trips? Not to mention that Bincheng, a coastal city, receives many high-ranking officials and foreign guests for recuperation every year because of its beautiful scenery.
That’s why aquatic products stores and major restaurants are often out of stock. Even if sea cucumbers are available in aquatic product stores, it’s hard to see thirty-head top quality ones.
This is the basis for Hong Yanwu's decision to sell sea cucumbers from the beginning. It is also the fundamental reason why he has been able to quickly sell sea cucumbers to tourists in Bincheng.
So now that we have talked about the data that Hong Yanwu himself researched and scrutinized. It is also necessary to talk about the research results and estimated data that Vice President Zhou relies on.
According to Hong Yanwu, Deputy Manager Zhou really shouldn't take these things too seriously.
Because first of all, these data have not happened yet. Unlike Hong Yanwu’s investigation of the data that actually happened in the past, there are too many variables in the middle.
The second is that our official estimation method itself is too unique. It basically reports good news but not bad news. This trend, like the "satellite release" incident many years ago, has not dissipated.
The only thing that is certain is that there is definitely something wrong with these estimates and figures. Imagine that the grassroots report to the leaders at all levels. There will always be someone among them who will do something to please the leader. It just depends on how many problems there are.
What's more, in other words, even if these numbers are indeed real, we must not forget the saying that "the sky is unpredictable."
Sea cucumbers are different from ordinary commodities. They are not produced in factories, nor are they something that farmers can just dig out a big basket with a hoe.
It is completely bred naturally by the sea. It has a slow growth cycle and is picky about the growth environment requirements. You still have to rely on people to dive into the sea and fish them out. After you fish them out, you have to do post-processing.
There are uncontrollable factors in every step of these links, which are also closely related to weather and environmental changes. If there is a problem in any link, it will cause heavy losses to sea cucumber production.
So when Vice President Zhou does this, the risk is definitely greater than the certainty. Ninety-nine percent of the time, something will go wrong.
In this case, no matter how you look at it or say it, sea cucumbers are in short supply.
As long as this does not cause a fundamental reversal, sea cucumbers will always be a hot commodity on the market, and it is impossible for the price to really drop just by relying on an official price.
The most typical example of this is the "three turns and one sound" that is representative of those in-demand commodities on the market.
Due to my country's current limited industrial level, output cannot meet the needs of the entire population. Not only are the prices of these ordinary light industrial products high, but they also require a ticket to buy them.
To get these goods, ordinary people have to put in a lot of effort and even spend a fortune just to collect industrial coupons, but they all flock to it and are willing to do so.
When these products are in short supply, you still have to buy gifts as a favor. But no matter how much you pay, as long as you can buy it, thank God, no one will feel a loss at all...
Hong Yanwu spoke eloquently and cheerfully, but although what he said was logically clear and well-founded, it ultimately surpassed the understanding of this era.
The cultural level of the "Hai Bangzi" is not very high. In fact, after listening to it for a long time, most of them still half understand and half don't understand. So some people couldn't help but start to express doubts.
For example, "Xiapaizi" said, "Three turns and one beep are different from sea cucumbers. They are daily necessities that can be used repeatedly. If you don't buy them, you will have no use. Sea cucumbers are useless after eating them." Ordinary people can live without eating it. Moreover, the official price of "Three Turns and One Ring" is high, but the price of sea cucumbers has dropped. How can we compare them?"
His words made many people nod, and obviously this was also the view of most people.
It’s just that this question seems a bit childish and ridiculous when viewed today. Of course Hong Yanwu was not asked, and Tantan gave another example.
"So what if it's not a necessity? So what if the official price is low? Have you forgotten Moutai?"
Indeed, to say this, Moutai should be a more appropriate example.
Because Moutai is also a relatively luxurious consumable, people have little demand for this thing in their daily life. And the official price is only eight yuan. If someone encounters a happy event worth celebrating, if they really want to buy a bottle or two, almost everyone can afford it.
But the actual situation is not like this. Precisely because the production of Moutai is limited, although the official price is not high, it will never benefit the public.
For those who are in high positions and have connections, it is of course eight dollars. But for ordinary people who don't have this way, you have to find someone who can get it and add more money. Twenty is it, thirty is it, and forty or fifty is it.
Just like a while ago, Hong Yanwu bought Maotai for 20 yuan a bottle through Manager Xie of the guest house for the wedding of the "general".
That is still the friendly price within the commercial system, and no matter how much I want to buy more, 12 bottles in a box is Manager Xie’s greatest ability. How about giving Manager Xie two bottles as a gift?
There is no way, no matter how low the official price is, if you can’t buy the goods, everything will be wasted.
In fact, in this era, there has always been a "dual-track system" for all commodities in society. When the country later officially discovered that this situation was serious and had to issue relevant management policies, it was already an afterthought.
As soon as this example was cited, "Xiaipizi" was speechless. He had to admit that this was a real objective existence.
But after thinking about it for a while, "Ba Chu" still didn't understand a very crucial question. He asked, if Hong Yanwu's theory is followed, the price of sea cucumbers should be like Moutai, much higher than the price in aquatic product stores, right? But why is it the exact opposite in reality?
Hong Yanwu was not embarrassed by this question. He thought about it and quickly answered to the point.
"There is still a difference. Moutai cannot be produced by the private sector on its own, and the only channels that can be obtained must go through the government. But there are many 'sea bumpers' that can fish for sea cucumbers. In terms of output It seems that the 100 tons of 'Haipongzi' per year can basically support half of Bincheng's sea cucumber production, and it is definitely the most effective supply source."
"In addition, the private sale of sea cucumbers in 'Haipengzi' is an idle transaction, and it is difficult to form a scale. There is a lack of consensus on the transaction price. Once they are anxious for money, they rush to sell it at a low price. The most important thing is that they have found the wrong transaction partner. . The price must go up."
"However, it is not necessarily true to say that no one among them makes a fortune from selling sea cucumbers. Those who go to the beach to buy them in batches during the peak season every year are smart people who understand the true value of sea cucumbers and can resell them at high prices."
Once these few words are said, no one has any doubts. The principles explained by Hong Yanwu are both logical and humane, as well as empirical. They are completely seamless and convincing and admirable.
Although the understanding abilities of "Haichengzi" vary, many people still cannot digest some theoretical things. But when it comes to this, everyone finds it refreshing and at the same time understands some economic principles and economic phenomena.
At least many people are beginning to feel that this sea cucumber price cut is not as threatening as it appears. It seems that the price of sea cucumbers should go up.
Even people with a flexible mind like "Xia Laizi" can vaguely sense that there are some unspeakable good opportunities inside. I couldn't help but ponder it in silence, wanting to chew on the details.
At this time, the "general" who had been silent had become a little impatient.
Not only was he the person who heard the most clearly, he was also the person who trusted Hong Yanwu the most. He said directly to Hong Yanwu, "You are our God of Wealth and our leader. No one can handle things here better than you." You have to understand, who else can I listen to if I don’t listen to you? In my opinion, don’t go to such trouble, just tell us what to do! It’s up to you to arrange everything, we trust you!”
The effect of the words "general" was obvious. The people who had been stunned for a long time woke up and started to agree with him.
Needless to say, what happened has long made them unable to question Hong Yanwu's ability to make money. Who wouldn't want to compete with others for nothing?
Without the "flying crab" and the "general" taking the lead and providing full support, this small group easily reached complete agreement.
However, Hong Yanwu, who said he was thirsty, did not get carried away because of this. He drank some water and still had a gentle and tepid attitude.
He said that in matters like this, which are related to everyone's interests, one cannot be careless in the slightest. He must try his best to explain clearly so that everyone can safely support him. And he said that what he said to everyone just now was mainly to explain the following points.
First, he can guarantee that even in the worst outcome, everyone's interests will at least be no less than they are now.
Second, since there is no practical basis for the price reduction of sea cucumbers, it is difficult to ensure supply. He judged that the duration should not be long, and the pressure on the fishery companies to persist would be increasing.
Third, in this case, he can also conclude that the room for price reduction of sea cucumbers is relatively limited, but the room for price increase is unlimited.
In his opinion, even if the official price drops again and again, the price of "Haibengzi" in private transactions is not high to begin with, and it will be over if it drops even one or two yuan lower.
Because sea cucumbers are not eggplants after all. They can be harvested better from one acre of land, but they will rot if they cannot be sold. If the price is really low to a certain level, I believe that as long as there is no urgent need for money, the "Hai Bangzi" would rather throw it away than sell it at a low price.
As for there being an opportunity for price increases. This is partly due to the rapid depletion of official stocks due to price cuts. On the other hand, "Hai Bangzi" will no longer be keen on fishing for sea cucumbers due to lower prices. At the same time, if the price is still acceptable, they will be more anxious to clear their stocks.
But no matter what, these will directly lead to a reduction of spot goods on the market, if there is a problem with the supply of goods that Vice President Zhou is counting on in the end. It coincides with the peak demand season, so a U-turn in the price of sea cucumbers in Bincheng is inevitable.
Things must go to extremes, and if prices rebound under such strong pressure, I believe that the speed and extent of their rise will be even more rapid and exaggerated! Absolutely no one can stop it!
So looking at it this way, who can say that this price reduction is not a good thing?
These last words were definitely a sure sign, and all the "Hai Bangzi" were dumbfounded.
"Xiapaizi" asked, "You mean, the price of sea cucumbers will rise soon? Then don't the people who sell it now definitely lose money? We should take advantage of the low price and collect more!"
"Sanjizi" also said, "Can it be higher than before? Didn't Vice President Zhou help us a lot? Is this...possible?"
Hong Yanwu said firmly, "I don't have any other ideas. I'm afraid our chance of an outbreak is already at hand!"