Return To 1977 Chapter 548: Analysis
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Of course, Hong Yanwu cannot say that the historical development is all in his own mind for the reason for this judgment, but he demonstrates it through several reasonings based on reality.
First, Bincheng sea cucumber is the most famous and high-end sea cucumber variety in China. Its scarcity and preciousness are irreplaceable.
The cold, clean water here creates this slow-growing sea cucumber. Aestivation alone takes four to five months, and its quality is naturally far superior to that of sea cucumbers that grow quickly in warm seawater in the south.
As a result, it has long been a hot commodity across the country, and demand has always been far greater than production.
In addition to what the master said just now, the other concrete evidence that can prove this is that after the sea cucumber hype subsided two years ago. Bincheng sea cucumbers once dropped to the starting price of an average of fifteen yuan, but since then it has been slowly rising and has never gone down again. The price has always been ahead of any domestic sea cucumber variety.
No one is stupid, that’s why prices are gradually rising. It’s because good stuff is scarce. So not to mention that Bincheng sea cucumbers are a bit difficult to sell right now, but if you look across the country, they are still in short supply.
If nothing else, even in such a bad market today, the price is still at eighteen or twenty, which is still higher than two years ago.
Second, the shortage of sea cucumbers will never be alleviated, it will continue, and may even become more and more serious.
Because the basis of this sea cucumber hype is the man-made disaster caused by the "educated youth returning to the city", this man-made disaster will not be easily eliminated. The jobs of hundreds of thousands of people cannot be created out of thin air. At least not for a few years.
And these people have to eat, live, and find things to do when they have nothing to do. So it is destined that this situation will lead to sea drought.
It is completely foreseeable that in a few years, not only sea cucumbers, but also "sea red", "sea oysters" and "thorn pots" will be scooped up by thousands of people and become rare commodities.
In short, as long as there are no jobs, sea cucumbers will become increasingly scarce.
Third, the government is now a little bit exhausted.
The government's method of deploying sea cucumbers from other places to stabilize the market was used last time. The only thing that is certain is that this approach can only have a temporary effect and will definitely fail in the long term, which is difficult to reverse.
Because in addition to the inside story revealed by the master inadvertently, this was confirmed. Even from a national perspective, Shandong sea cucumbers still have low supply and high demand.
Not to mention taking ten thousand steps back. There are also educated youths in Shandong, and the sea is still being desired by those extra people without restraint.
Furthermore, Shandong has a high population density, with more people than here. Otherwise, why was there the term "Crossing Guandong" before?
The reason why goods are available this year is just because the educated youth have just begun to return to the city, but that may not be the case next year.
In addition, Hong Yanwu himself and "Xiaobaizi" have also done some data surveys in the past few days.
The situation they have now is that it was a rumor in itself that a ship of sea cucumbers was unloaded at the pier.
Hong Yanwu has previously calculated that under the current situation of relying entirely on wild fishing, Bincheng's annual sea cucumber production is nothing more than three to four hundred tons of dried sea cucumbers. And the cargo capacity of that freighter is too large, at least several hundred tons, which is simply impossible.
So in fact, only 180 tons of dried sea cucumbers were unloaded. It's basically the people who fry sea cucumbers who scare themselves out of their wits. This caused the market to collapse.
And in the past few days, they also visited the warehouse like last time. It was discovered that the stock of sea cucumbers in Shandong was indeed running low. The remaining 20 tons of cargo will probably last until early November.
Also, Hong Yanwu went to "Clam Bay" not just to see the "old saury", he also got some data from the fishing village secretary.
What he knows is that now that the seabed is empty, the average cost of fishing for fishing companies has been as high as thirty yuan per pound of dried sea cucumbers. Far from the spot price on the market.
What's more, ordinary people are not fools, and they can definitely tell the difference between good and bad things at the entrance. Shandong sea cucumbers are sold because everyone doesn’t understand them.
But as time went by, after comparison, everyone understood the quality, and naturally felt that they were losing money by buying the quality goods in the store, not to mention that the price of local sea cucumbers on the market was so much cheaper.
This means that it won’t be long before the private trade of sea cucumbers will definitely become prosperous again. Everyone will turn around and grab Bincheng sea cucumbers. The current situation of price inversion will never exist for long.
At this point, all the "sea bumpers" could no longer suppress their excitement. They couldn't help but started talking quietly.
"Okay, now I feel confident. We won't sell the sea cucumbers yet."
"Yes, that's great, there is hope, we can't lose anything."
"What about eldest brother? In this case, eldest brother won't really lose everything..."
Hong Yanwu couldn't bear it any longer when he heard the quarrels of these petty-minded and somewhat under-intellectuals. He slapped the table and said something.
"You guys are so worthless! Is this all you have an idea? Thanks to me for doing so many detailed and thorough investigations!"
The "Hai Bangzi" were collectively stunned. After looking at each other for a moment, it suddenly dawned on them. "You mean..."
Hong Yanwu’s voice was full of excitement. "You're getting money to copy goods! Do you still have to ask? It's time to put on your bayonet and charge!"
But his passion was in vain. Because the eyes of the "sea bumpers" just showed eagerness, and soon hesitated. Many people also looked embarrassed.
"Xiao Wu, we don't have much money in our hands..."
"That is, if we have to spend more money to copy goods, we can only sell the things we have..."
"Is this really a good deal? You will never lose money again? You can guarantee it!"
In full view of the public, Hong Yanwu showed no embarrassment and bluntly said something quite heart-wrenching.
"This is up to you to decide. Anyway, I am going to work with the "General" to do this. The matter is right in front of you. I have said everything that needs to be said. You can't want to make money and not Take any risks. Isn’t that the same as before?”
"I have to say a few things here. First, there is nothing foolproof in the world. There is only one with a higher probability and one with a lower probability. There is also the consideration of whether the risks are worthwhile compared with the benefits. ."
"Second, any business is not gambling, and you cannot gain something by being stupid and bold and lucky. Although it is easier to make money now by being bold. But all the transactions I make must be reasonable. Logic is the prerequisite for starting, and the more preparation you have, the more you know about the situation, the better your chances of winning.”
"Third, there is no such thing as a free lunch. I have fulfilled my obligation as a friend by remembering your past friendship and telling you my analysis. I don't need to take on any more responsibility for you, and neither do you. No matter what reason you ask me to guarantee."
"Actually, it's not nice to say it. In the past, the 'general' was too considerate for you and took on too many responsibilities that should not be borne by him, and only then did you complain. Why should you listen to him? It’s because you think he is more capable, capable, and trustworthy than you. This is your own choice.”
"But 'General' is also a mortal and will make mistakes. He is not your father. He has no obligation to wipe your butts for nothing and has to be scolded and complained about. Your fault is that for a long time, you have treated him Everything I have done for you is taken for granted!”