The Whispering Verses Chapter 913: The fallacy of probability
After the first two rounds of competition, Baron Lavender now has 1+2=3 points, Miss Witte has 3+3=6 points, and Shade has 3+4=7 points. Unless Shade blows up, Baron Lavender will never win the championship anyway. But if Baron withdraws from the game now, it means that even if Miss Witte wins against Shade, the total score will be a draw. Therefore, even though there was no hope of winning, Baron Lavender still stayed as a gentleman for the sake of fairness in the overall score.
After the three people readjusted their seat positions, the referee, Mr. Justin, loudly announced the start of the game several times before reluctantly drawing people's attention back.
"Miss Witte, speaking of which, this is also my first time playing Rhodes with a lady."
Because one person was missing, the remaining three people changed their seats. At this time, Shade sat opposite Miss Pavo under the grape trellis, and the referee Mr. Justin stood opposite Baron Lavender.
The six-ring sorceress from the Truth Society had a smile on her face, as if she was really enjoying tonight's grand banquet.
"Mr. Hamilton, you will find that ladies are no worse at mathematics than men."
The three people's trump cards were dealt out separately. Xia De did not look at the trump cards and directly signaled to continue dealing the cards.
Miss Pavo's Delrayon accent is exceptionally standard, just like her Kasenlik accent is good enough to be a government spokesperson.
"So, ma'am, you're good at math?"
Shad asked, then went to look at his second card with the other two. What a coincidence, the numbers of the three people are exactly the same, but the colors are different. Shade is the star 7, the sorceress is the flower 7, and Baron Lavender is the sun 7.
"What a coincidence."
The Baron said with a smile and motioned to continue asking for cards, as did Shade and "Miss Werther".
“I can’t say I’m good at it, but I’ve always believed that mathematics is the only one in this world that can’t lie to people.”
She said, Shade nodded slightly:
"Yes, I agree with this point of view, but I think it is best to add certain qualifiers to such 'absolute' sentences, otherwise"
He stopped and was interrupted by Baron Lavender:
"I suspend trading."
The Baron turned over his hole card and put it together with the other two cards:
"Sun 3, Sun 7 and Sun 9, 19 o'clock."
As he spoke, he looked at the third card played by Shade and "Miss Witte", looking forward to what the game would turn out to be.
Insect chirping can no longer be heard at night in early winter. As the night gets darker, the halo of the gas lamp under the grape trellis is so ambiguous and subtle.
Xia De looked at the cards in his hand and asked:
"Miss Witte, the current situation is that if I don't blow my cards, you must get the first place in this round, and I get the third place in this round, and then you can win in the final. So, you Do you think your winning rate is high? ”
The sorceress raised her lips and said:
"I don't think you will bust. This is the conclusion I made after studying all your cards circulating on the market. Mr. Hamilton, you are very cautious and have good luck, so there is a high probability that you will not bust this time. It will blow up."
She looked at her and Shade’s third card:
"If you want to discuss the winning rate, your card is Flower 7 and Flower 8, 15 points. And my card is Star 7 and Sun 10, 17 points. I think my winning rate is higher."
Although he didn't know the opponent's ring warlock system, Shade believed that the sorceress in front of him had probably fully calculated the winning rate of both sides in the current state.
He shook his head:
"If you play cards too clearly, it will affect your mood. And I once heard this saying, if your magical power is not as good as the sky, ahem, your ability is not as good as your luck, sometimes the tricks will be exhausted, but it will be delayed. Himself."
"No, no, mathematics doesn't lie."
The two exchanged opinions with each other, and Miss Paavo revealed her trump card:
"I suspend trading."
Her cards were Star 2, Star 7, Sun 10, a total of 19 points, which was exactly the same as Baron Lavender. But what people pay attention to is not the total points, but the special card Star 2.
On the card, there is a human male with his legs spread apart and his arms stretched to the left and right. All other parts are blurred except for the heart, which is extremely detailed, probably as detailed as a hand-drawn illustration in a college anatomy textbook.
Star 2 [Human Organ·Heart], when you draw this card, if your total points are an odd number, you can activate the effect based on your opponent's total points at the end of the round. If the opponent's total points are an even number, the opponent's total points are forcibly subtracted by 2; if the opponent's total points are an odd number, the opponent's total points are forcibly increased by two. It does not affect the points of the exploding card. This effect must be activated. The effect is only effective on the opponent who has not suspended the card.
"Miss Witte has 19 points, the effect is activated. Oh? It's this kind of special card?"
Baron Lavender said in surprise:
"You can choose not to use most of the special effects of Rhodes cards. The effects marked as must be activated are all luck rules with both positive and negative effects. Plus two or minus two?"
The appearance of such a special special card finally brought people's attention back from the "knight punching the cheater" thing just now.
People are urging Shade to open the cards, wanting to know who is more advantageous to this special card of "Miss Witte".
Dan Shade shook his head:
"Continue to ask for cards."
"Xia De, the total points of your two open cards is now 15 points, do you still want to continue to ask for cards?"
Baron Lavender asked in surprise, "Miss Werther" smiled and said:
"This means that if the cards are played now, Mr. Hamilton will definitely lose. He continues to ask for cards, which means that the three cards have not exploded. This means that Mr. Hamilton's total points are definitely not 17 points at present, but 19 points."
Baron Lavender thought for a moment before understanding:
"Oh, yes, this lady and I both have 19 points. According to the rules of the special card [Human Organ·Heart], 17 points is 19 points, 18 points is 16 points, and 19 points is 21 points. 20 points is 18 points, and 21 points is 23 points. Therefore, Shade can win only if the total points are 17 or 19 points! ”
"Yes, as long as Hamilton Knight cannot beat or tie me, then in the third game he will get two points and I will get four points. In the first two games, he was only 1 point ahead of me, so he must win this game Or a tie."
Miss Witte nodded slightly:
"So, things get interesting. Can Mr. Hamilton win 17 or even 19?"
In fact, the probability of 17 is extremely small, because the sum of Shade's second and third cards is already 15 points.
The corners of the sorceress's lips curved into a smile. Baron Lavender stared nervously at the cards in Shade's hand, and people started talking about it.
This kind of game, which compresses the limit of points to only a few possibilities, is the most exciting game. Coupled with Miss Witte's simple analysis, she sorted out the current situation, and there are special cards that eliminate other possibilities. This kind of interesting game may not be encountered once in half a year.
Xia De chuckled and shook his head:
"Yeah, my point total has to be 17 or 19, that's really interesting."
He is not nervous. Although he is very interested in [Life Ceremony and Wedding], it doesn't matter if he loses. The victory in the boxing just now made him satisfied, and Xia De would not expect to win twice.
The fourth card was dealt face up, but Shade did not show it immediately. Instead, he revealed his trump card, the 5 of stars.
"Three cards are worth 20 points! Adding the fourth card, it is impossible to adjust it to 17 or 19 no matter what! Mr. Hamilton actually lost!"
Baron Rwanda, standing behind Baron Lavender, holding the back of the chair tightly with his right hand, the veins on the back of his hand looking like they were about to explode, said with excitement.
The crowd was in an uproar, mostly with voices of regret. Now it seems that Shade is bound to lose before he gets the fourth card. After all, the first three cards have 20 points, and it is impossible to get 17 and 19. And he continued to ask for cards with three cards, because as long as the cards are not opened, there will be no total points, and the rules of Star 2 [Human Organs and Hearts] will not be triggered. There is no need to add two, and there is no exploding card.
Miss Witte let out a long breath, with a bright smile on her face.
Xia De looked at the cards scattered on the table and shook his head slightly. Looking at the fourth card at the end, he was not completely disappointed:
"No, actually I still have a chance to win, it's a very small possibility."
"What?"
Although Shade's voice was not loud, the people who were discussing the card game enthusiastically still heard it:
"This is impossible."
Baron Rwanda shook his head:
"You have missed 17 points and 19 points. And although there are cards in your deck that adjust the points, even if it is an adjustment, the addition is at 20 points. There is no card that can change this. A little."
"My fourth card hasn't been drawn yet, so there's still hope."
Shad stretched out his hand to the fourth card. Under the bright grape trellis, everyone subconsciously stopped talking and looked at Shad's hand, as if Shad could really rewrite the foundation of the Rhodes card. Same rules.
"We have to believe in our Rhodes deck."
He said softly, which made people respect him even more. Rhodes players believe in their luck and cherish their decks. These are the real poker players.
Taking a deep breath, he prepared to reveal the last card, but suddenly withdrew his hand.
Shad turned to look at Tifa and said with a smile:
"Tifa, come and help me open the cards."
Although the black-haired maid was a little surprised, she still nodded, and Shade explained to the referee Mr. Justin:
"This is my lucky girl."
The referee nodded and allowed this approach.
So Tifa held little Mia with one hand, and then revealed the last card:
[Carson Rick’s Horror Story・Jack the Headless Horseman], suit color: Star 1.
"Oh, what a pity, 21. The odd number is added by 2, and the card is busted at 23! It was obviously 21 again, but we still lost. It's really exciting, it's such a pity."
Baron Lavender said very regretfully, and then felt that his shoulder was suddenly pressed by a huge force. When he turned around, he saw that it was Baron Rwanda. He stared at the cards in Tifa's hand with wide eyes, his face flushed as if his blood vessels were about to explode:
"No, no!"
He seemed to be having an asthma attack, unable to breathe:
"Mr. Hamilton won! Look at the rules! Oh, there is such a thing! Oh, God, why didn't you let me participate in this final!"
He groaned loudly, and people realized something was wrong. Shade gestured to Tifa, who read out the rules of the cards in a clear voice:
"[Carson Rick Horror Story・Headless Horseman Jack], suit: Star 1. When you draw this card, if your opponent's first hole card is also of the star suit, and the number is less than or equal to 5, you can choose to The opponent's total points are forcibly reduced by one."
After a slight pause, Tifa continued to speak. Although the maid's voice was very soft, almost everyone held their breath, so they could hear her:
"Miss Witte's first card is the Star 2 [Human Organ・Heart], so the effect of Star 1 [Carson Rick Horror Story・Headless Horseman Jack] is triggered."
"But even if the effect is triggered, Miss Witte's 18 points are still better than Shade's 21 points, which is equal to 23 points."
Baron Lavender still didn’t understand, but Viscount Soult, who was standing behind Miss Witte, said with a blushing face:
"Lavender, don't you understand yet?
It’s the rules that influence each other, rare rules that influence each other! The rules take effect on a first-come-first-served basis. This means that [Carson Rick Horror Story - Jack the Headless Horseman] is calculated first, and Miss Witte's total points are changed from 19 points to 18 points, which does not meet the conditions for the effectiveness of Star 2 [Human Organs - Heart], that is, The total points of your own card holder is an odd number! ”
"What?"
Baron Lavender's eyes widened, and he stood up immediately, bending down to look at the stone table covered with various playing cards under the gas lamp. No one blamed him for being impolite, because everyone was so excited:
"In other words, due to the rules of last-issue calculation, [Human Organs and Hearts] cannot take effect. Shade's cards do not need to be forcibly added by 2, and his points are still 21 points."
"And my points are 18 points."
The sorceress of the Truth Society said softly. Although she lost, she still had a reserved smile on her face, just like a real noble lady:
"It's really, really interesting."
————————Digression——————
PS1: So far, this is the most complicated card game, mainly to express Shade. I hope everyone can understand the rules I wrote.
PS2: Thank you to the reader @星星stillshangjiajia for becoming the 21st alliance leader in this book. Adding an update, thank you for your support.